Global CO2 emissions from space and water heating in buildings in the APS, 2021-2030. Image credit: IEA
Globally, a report to the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that scaling up heat pumps “inevitably” means increased electricity demand, “this is far outweighed by the savings in fossil fuels due to their much greater efficiency”.
The heat-pump rollout in the APS would add “little” to electricity demand in “major heating regions”, pushing it roughly 1.5% to 2.5% higher than 2021 levels by 2030, according to the IEA. However, it adds that this could still require additional investment in capacity, customer connections, distribution grids and flexibility.
Keeping buildings warm produces one-tenth of global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Reducing the use of fossil fuels to heating buildings therefore comes with a significant emissions reduction.
In the APS, CO2 emissions from heating buildings drop by 1.2bn tonnes (Gt CO2), or more than a quarter. The large-scale switch from boilers fuelled with gas and other fossil fuels to heat pumps is responsible for 500Mt CO2 of this reduction.
This is nearly 2% of all energy-related CO2 emissions today. It is equivalent to Canada’s emissions footprint in 2021, the IEA notes.
Crucially, emissions would fall even though heat pumps often rely on fossil fuel combustion for power, including on coal-heavy grids such as China’s. This is because heat pumps are between three and five times more efficient than fossil fuel boilers.
The emissions savings also account for the leakage of F-gases, potent greenhouse gases that can be released during the manufacture and use of heat pumps.
The IEA estimates that heat pumps currently cut emissions by “at least 20%” compared to a gas boiler “even when running on emissions-intensive electricity”. This can rise to 80% when running on a cleaner grid.
